Monday, November 19, 2007

Week 12 Thoughts

I was 2-2 on my picks this week, bringing me to 29-19 on the year. Picking 65% isn't too bad I guess, given how crazy this year has been.

1. Michigan versus Ohio State
Much like Tim (I won't even attempt his full first name) Biakabatuka stole Eddie George's show a few years ago, so did Beanie Wells steal Mike Hart's. Wells ripped off 3 Touchdowns and over 200 years rushing while Hart, a Heisman candidate until Saturday, was basically invisible. The game reflected the weather conditions, cold and sloppy, and the running game was the difference as none of the three quarterbacks impressed. Mike Hart and Chad Henne finish 0-4 vs. their hated rival and Ryan Mallett begins his career 0-1...and has to go into the Horseshoe next season. The Buckeyes are guaranteed at least a berth in the Rose Bowl and have an outside shot (not so outside given how many upsets have taken place this year) at going to Glendale for the BCS championship.

2. The Big XII
Oklahoma is officially done, though it was kind of disappointing they lost probably because they're star starting quarterback went down early to an injury. They had legitimate national title hopes, and Heisman hopes for Bradford, before the injury. This leaves Kansas and Missouri, who play each other next week, to possibly represent the conference in Glendale. Both teams' success revolve around their QBs, Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel respectively, and while I believe Missouri wins next week and has the best chance of knocking off an LSU or an Ohio State for a title, Reesing is the better quarterback. Missouri is a spread system, much like Texas Tech, and look at how well the Red Raider signal callers are doing in the NFL. However, the spread system is dominant in college right now (see: Florida) and unless Kansas can come up with a way to stop it, the Tigers are playing for a Big XII championship berth...and beyond.

3. National Title prediction
This is where the water gets a little murky. Anything can happen. LSU didn't impress versus a weak Ole Miss team while Georgia is looking like (dare I say) the best team in the SEC with the emergence of Knowshon Moreno. If Tennessee loses to Kentucky, I really believe Georgia can win the SEC Championship. If Tennessee wins and plays in Atlanta, LSU wins in a blowout. I'm going to stick with the most probable outcome and say Tennessee wins and thus LSU wins, so LSU is safe to start packing for the desert. But who faces them? The winner of Kansas-Missouri, either of which could easily lose in the Big XII championship? West Virginia, who plays an extremely tough UConn team for the Big East title? The farthest it would slip is Ohio State, who with their cupcake schedule and lack of a conference championship game (which should qualify the "Big Two" as a mid-major...seriously, play a conference championship game) would back their way in. And if Georgia beats LSU...I don't even want to think about it. That might be the end of the BCS.

Anyways, my prediction: LSU vs. Missouri. But this could drastically change after this weekend's games.

Heisman Race
Unless Tim Tebow drops a bomb against Florida State, he should start clearing room on his dresser for the Heisman trophy. He became the first quarterback in HISTORY to both pass and rush for 20 touchdowns in a season. When I think of the Heisman winner, I think of the player who if you removed them from their team, their team would not only be worse off but would be a completely different animal. Tim Tebow is that to the Florida Gators, not to mention his stats are leagues beyond any other contender--all while facing stiffer competition. If Chase Daniel has monster games against Kansas and in the Big XII championship he has a shot, but only because Tebow is a sophomore.

1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (3,619 total yards, 46 total TD's)
2. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri (3,590 passing yards, 30 passing TD's).
3. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (1,519 rushing yards, 12 TD's)

on the bubble: Todd Reesing, Pat White

Golden Top 25
1. LSU
2. Kansas
3. Missouri
4. West Virginia
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Arizona State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Oregon (without Dixon)
11. Florida
12. USC
13. Texas
14. Hawaii
15. Boston College
16. Virginia
17. Illinois
18. Boise State
19. Tennessee
20. UConn
21. Clemson
22. Wisconsin
23. Cincinnati
24. BYU
25. Auburn

Disagree with me on anything? Please feel free to comment and I'll respond.

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