Monday, November 26, 2007

Week 13 Thoughts

I was 7-2 this week, bringing my overall year-to-date picks record to 36-21.

1. The top 2 teams fall...this is starting to sound like a broken record
LSU lost in triple overtime and Kansas camp up just short of Big XII rival Missouri. LSU has two losses this year, both to SEC opponents and both in triple overtime. Great, championship caliber teams find a way to win close games; the Tigers simply haven't this season, the exception coming against Florida. Fans in the bayou are starting to place some of the blame on coaching, and with the coaching vacancy at Michigan don't be surprised to see Les Miles bolt before the water gets too hot in Louisiana. In the wake of disappointment and controversy, LSU better watch out for another letdown against Georgia in the SEC Championship. As for Kansas, they won't have a chance to play in the Big XII or BCS Championship games, but do finish the regular season 11-1 and will almost certainly get an at-large BCS bowl bid. Oh well, they still have basketball, right?

2. The rankings don't reflect the best teams
This college football season has been crazy to say the least, and the result is that the most talented teams in the country are nowhere near the top of the rankings. West Virginia can build a case that they're in the elite tier, and Missouri can as well with a revenge win against Oklahoma, but each team still has a game to play and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them lost. If Ohio State plays in the BCS Championship it will be a travesty; their signature win is against an 8-4 Michigan team and they're coming out of an extremely weak Big Ten conference that doesn't even play a conference championship game. Off the top of my head, these teams have impressed me more this season than the Buckeyes: Missouri, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Oregon, USC, Arizona State, West Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Illinois and Hawaii. They shouldn't even be in the top 10. Here are the teams playing the best football right now, in order (of course, the rankings don't reflect who's playing best right now, it takes into account a full season): 1) USC, 2) Georgia, 3) West Virginia, 4) Missouri, 5) Florida.

3. National Championship prediction
West Virginia is in. Without a doubt in my mind. Who they play hinges on Oklahoma vs. Missouri. I don't know how much gas Missouri has left in the tank, and given the history the top-ranked teams have had this season...I'm going to have so say they, unfortunately, lose. The good news is WVU will absolutely blow out Ohio State, embarrassing them for the second BCS Championship in a row. Remember what Juice Williams did? Yeah, Pat White is about twice that good and has more weapons around him. West Virginia vs. Ohio State, and the Mountaineers win in a blowout.

Heisman Race
Darren McFadden had a monster game and Chase Daniel was near perfect. My argument is this: McFadden gives up a lot of time to Felix Jones, who puts up numbers just as good as McFadden, which hurts #5's cause. Also, Arkansas has four losses; in one of them against Auburn, McFadden only had 43 yards rushing and 0 touchdowns. I just don't see McFadden winning. If Chase Daniel has another 300 yard, 3 TD game in a win against Oklahoma...the trophy is his. If not, it's Tebow's. The Florida signal caller has more touchdowns (51) than any Heisman-winning quarterback in history; he's the first quarterback ever to record 20 TD's throwing and 20 TD's rushing in a single season; he's tied for the most rushing TD's (22) in a single season by a QB, and will almost certainly break that record in his bowl game.

1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (3,970 total yards, 51 total TD's)
2. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri (3,951 passing yards, 33 passing TD's)
3. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (1,725 rushing yards, 20 total TD's)

Golden Top 25
1. West Virginia
2. Missouri
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. LSU
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kansas
8. Oklahoma
9. Florida
10. USC
11. Boston College
12. Hawaii
13. Tennessee
14. Arizona State
15. Illinois
16. Clemson
17. Texas
18. Wisconsin
19. Cincinnati
20. Auburn
21. Virginia
22. Boise State
23. BYU
24. Oregon
25. Arkansas

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