Week 13 Thoughts

I was 7-2 this week, bringing my overall year-to-date picks record to 36-21.

1. The top 2 teams fall...this is starting to sound like a broken record
LSU lost in triple overtime and Kansas camp up just short of Big XII rival Missouri. LSU has two losses this year, both to SEC opponents and both in triple overtime. Great, championship caliber teams find a way to win close games; the Tigers simply haven't this season, the exception coming against Florida. Fans in the bayou are starting to place some of the blame on coaching, and with the coaching vacancy at Michigan don't be surprised to see Les Miles bolt before the water gets too hot in Louisiana. In the wake of disappointment and controversy, LSU better watch out for another letdown against Georgia in the SEC Championship. As for Kansas, they won't have a chance to play in the Big XII or BCS Championship games, but do finish the regular season 11-1 and will almost certainly get an at-large BCS bowl bid. Oh well, they still have basketball, right?

2. The rankings don't reflect the best teams
This college football season has been crazy to say the least, and the result is that the most talented teams in the country are nowhere near the top of the rankings. West Virginia can build a case that they're in the elite tier, and Missouri can as well with a revenge win against Oklahoma, but each team still has a game to play and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them lost. If Ohio State plays in the BCS Championship it will be a travesty; their signature win is against an 8-4 Michigan team and they're coming out of an extremely weak Big Ten conference that doesn't even play a conference championship game. Off the top of my head, these teams have impressed me more this season than the Buckeyes: Missouri, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Oregon, USC, Arizona State, West Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Illinois and Hawaii. They shouldn't even be in the top 10. Here are the teams playing the best football right now, in order (of course, the rankings don't reflect who's playing best right now, it takes into account a full season): 1) USC, 2) Georgia, 3) West Virginia, 4) Missouri, 5) Florida.

3. National Championship prediction
West Virginia is in. Without a doubt in my mind. Who they play hinges on Oklahoma vs. Missouri. I don't know how much gas Missouri has left in the tank, and given the history the top-ranked teams have had this season...I'm going to have so say they, unfortunately, lose. The good news is WVU will absolutely blow out Ohio State, embarrassing them for the second BCS Championship in a row. Remember what Juice Williams did? Yeah, Pat White is about twice that good and has more weapons around him. West Virginia vs. Ohio State, and the Mountaineers win in a blowout.

Heisman Race
Darren McFadden had a monster game and Chase Daniel was near perfect. My argument is this: McFadden gives up a lot of time to Felix Jones, who puts up numbers just as good as McFadden, which hurts #5's cause. Also, Arkansas has four losses; in one of them against Auburn, McFadden only had 43 yards rushing and 0 touchdowns. I just don't see McFadden winning. If Chase Daniel has another 300 yard, 3 TD game in a win against Oklahoma...the trophy is his. If not, it's Tebow's. The Florida signal caller has more touchdowns (51) than any Heisman-winning quarterback in history; he's the first quarterback ever to record 20 TD's throwing and 20 TD's rushing in a single season; he's tied for the most rushing TD's (22) in a single season by a QB, and will almost certainly break that record in his bowl game.

1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (3,970 total yards, 51 total TD's)
2. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri (3,951 passing yards, 33 passing TD's)
3. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (1,725 rushing yards, 20 total TD's)

Golden Top 25
1. West Virginia
2. Missouri
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. LSU
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kansas
8. Oklahoma
9. Florida
10. USC
11. Boston College
12. Hawaii
13. Tennessee
14. Arizona State
15. Illinois
16. Clemson
17. Texas
18. Wisconsin
19. Cincinnati
20. Auburn
21. Virginia
22. Boise State
23. BYU
24. Oregon
25. Arkansas

Week 13 Picks

The upsets continue...

#11 USC vs. #6 Arizona State

#19 Boise State vs. #15 Hawaii

Arkansas vs. #1 LSU

#4 Missouri vs. #2 Kansas

#20 Connecticut vs. #3 West Virginia

#8 Virginia Tech vs. #16 Virginia

Florida State vs. #12 Florida

#18 Tennessee vs. Kentucky

#22 Clemson vs. South Carolina

Week 12 Thoughts

I was 2-2 on my picks this week, bringing me to 29-19 on the year. Picking 65% isn't too bad I guess, given how crazy this year has been.

1. Michigan versus Ohio State
Much like Tim (I won't even attempt his full first name) Biakabatuka stole Eddie George's show a few years ago, so did Beanie Wells steal Mike Hart's. Wells ripped off 3 Touchdowns and over 200 years rushing while Hart, a Heisman candidate until Saturday, was basically invisible. The game reflected the weather conditions, cold and sloppy, and the running game was the difference as none of the three quarterbacks impressed. Mike Hart and Chad Henne finish 0-4 vs. their hated rival and Ryan Mallett begins his career 0-1...and has to go into the Horseshoe next season. The Buckeyes are guaranteed at least a berth in the Rose Bowl and have an outside shot (not so outside given how many upsets have taken place this year) at going to Glendale for the BCS championship.

2. The Big XII
Oklahoma is officially done, though it was kind of disappointing they lost probably because they're star starting quarterback went down early to an injury. They had legitimate national title hopes, and Heisman hopes for Bradford, before the injury. This leaves Kansas and Missouri, who play each other next week, to possibly represent the conference in Glendale. Both teams' success revolve around their QBs, Todd Reesing and Chase Daniel respectively, and while I believe Missouri wins next week and has the best chance of knocking off an LSU or an Ohio State for a title, Reesing is the better quarterback. Missouri is a spread system, much like Texas Tech, and look at how well the Red Raider signal callers are doing in the NFL. However, the spread system is dominant in college right now (see: Florida) and unless Kansas can come up with a way to stop it, the Tigers are playing for a Big XII championship berth...and beyond.

3. National Title prediction
This is where the water gets a little murky. Anything can happen. LSU didn't impress versus a weak Ole Miss team while Georgia is looking like (dare I say) the best team in the SEC with the emergence of Knowshon Moreno. If Tennessee loses to Kentucky, I really believe Georgia can win the SEC Championship. If Tennessee wins and plays in Atlanta, LSU wins in a blowout. I'm going to stick with the most probable outcome and say Tennessee wins and thus LSU wins, so LSU is safe to start packing for the desert. But who faces them? The winner of Kansas-Missouri, either of which could easily lose in the Big XII championship? West Virginia, who plays an extremely tough UConn team for the Big East title? The farthest it would slip is Ohio State, who with their cupcake schedule and lack of a conference championship game (which should qualify the "Big Two" as a mid-major...seriously, play a conference championship game) would back their way in. And if Georgia beats LSU...I don't even want to think about it. That might be the end of the BCS.

Anyways, my prediction: LSU vs. Missouri. But this could drastically change after this weekend's games.

Heisman Race
Unless Tim Tebow drops a bomb against Florida State, he should start clearing room on his dresser for the Heisman trophy. He became the first quarterback in HISTORY to both pass and rush for 20 touchdowns in a season. When I think of the Heisman winner, I think of the player who if you removed them from their team, their team would not only be worse off but would be a completely different animal. Tim Tebow is that to the Florida Gators, not to mention his stats are leagues beyond any other contender--all while facing stiffer competition. If Chase Daniel has monster games against Kansas and in the Big XII championship he has a shot, but only because Tebow is a sophomore.

1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (3,619 total yards, 46 total TD's)
2. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri (3,590 passing yards, 30 passing TD's).
3. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (1,519 rushing yards, 12 TD's)

on the bubble: Todd Reesing, Pat White

Golden Top 25
1. LSU
2. Kansas
3. Missouri
4. West Virginia
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Arizona State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Oregon (without Dixon)
11. Florida
12. USC
13. Texas
14. Hawaii
15. Boston College
16. Virginia
17. Illinois
18. Boise State
19. Tennessee
20. UConn
21. Clemson
22. Wisconsin
23. Cincinnati
24. BYU
25. Auburn

Disagree with me on anything? Please feel free to comment and I'll respond.

Week 12 Picks

#6 West Virginia vs. #22 Cincinnati

#7 Ohio State vs. #21 Michigan

#23 Kentucky vs. #9 Georgia

#17 Boston College vs. #15 Clemson

Week 11 Thoughts

I went 4-6 with my picks this week, the first time all season I've had a losing weekend. My 2007 year-to-date record is now 27-17.


1. Once again, a team in the top 3 falls...
Most people knew Ohio State would lose this season and was only ranked #1 due to a cupcake schedule. However, not many people predicted their inevitable loss would come at the hands of Illinois. The Buckeyes were able to shut down star back Rashard Mendenhall, but that left the field wide open for QB Juice Williams, who ran for several crucial long third down conversions to salt the game away in the fourth quarter. Ohio State's Todd Boeckman, who was starting to receive whispered Heisman notice, threw 3 picks and looked altogether unimpressive. With several weeks left in the season, one has to wonder...will someone in the top 3 lose every week? LSU has a tough test against Darren McFadden and a date with either Georgia, Tennessee, or Florida in the SEC championship--all teams that could beat the Tigers. Oregon is somewhat safer, but given how this season has gone, there's no such thing as upset-safe.

2. Georgia might be the most underrated team in the country
The Bulldogs, despite an unsuccessful "black out" by their fans, turned in another impressive victory on Saturday. They've now handedly beat two of the SEC's best in Florida and Auburn, and could probably present a tougher challenge to LSU than the Gators or Tennessee. The Vols control their own destiny in the SEC East by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker, and both teams have to play upset-minded Kentucky. I think Georgia gets out of Lexington and Tennessee doesn't, giving the ticket to the SEC Championship in Atlanta to Georgia. And don't be surprised if Mr. Everything freshman Knowshon Moreon leads the Bulldogs to victory over LSU, either. Georgia is starting to look scary good; they're the best two loss team in the country (you heard it here first).

3. BCS National Championship prediction...

I'm already excited for LSU-Oregon. It would be a great game, SEC vs. Pac-10, with stars all over the field. Kansas is intriguing, however--Oregon's schedule the rest of the way is softer than a down comforter and Kansas has tough games against Missouri and probably Oklahoma in the Big XII championship. If Kansas can win out, they'll certainly have a case to leapfrog Oregon. However, they've received almost no national media attention and most of the country would rather see LSU vs. Oregon. And seeing as how sports have become almost completely about money, the polls might "somehow" keep Oregon in their #2 spot to boost ratings and financial gains. I personally would be on the Jayhawk bandwagon, though, believing them the true #2--or even #1--team in the nation. They're in arguably the second toughest conference and are undefeated...if a bigger-name school had their record, they'd be ranked #1 in every poll.


Heisman Race
1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (3,250 total yards, 42 total TD's
2. Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon (2,623 total yards, 28 total TD's)
3. Chase Daniel, QB Missouri (3,306 passing yards, 26 passing TD's)

on the bubble: Todd Reesing, Darren McFadden, Sam Bradford, Colt Brennan

Golden Top 25
1. LSU
2. Kansas
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Missouri
6. West Virginia
7. Ohio State
8. Georgia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Hawaii
12. Texas
13. Florida
14. USC
15. Virginia
16. Clemson
17. Boise State
18. Boston College
19. Illinois
20. Cincinnati
21. Tennessee
22. Kentucky
23. Wisconsin
24. Michigan
25. Connecticut

Week 11 Picks

Louisville vs. #7 West Virginia

Illinois vs. #1 Ohio State

#18 Auburn vs. #10 Georgia

#12 Michigan vs. Wisconsin

#13 Connecticut vs. Cincinnati

Texas Tech vs. #14 Texas

#15 Florida vs. South Carolina

#17 USC vs. California

Wake Forest vs. #21 Clemson

Arkansas vs. #23 Tennessee

I was 4-3 with my picks for Week 10, bringing my year-to-date record to 23-11.

1. LSU escapes...again
That's the mark of a championship team; you can't win them all in blowouts, you have to survive the scares as well. Florida did it last year by blocking a last second kick against South Carolina. Now this year LSU has close wins against Florida, Auburn and Alabama. This team would be scary good if they had a decent quarterback, but for now they're just plain scary. Every week is dangerous in the SEC and LSU is now burdened with the Curse of #2. Will they lose again? No. Arkansas, despite a late season resurgence, doesn't have the talent level to best LSU. The SEC Championship, if it wasn't already, should be circled on every football fan's calendar--it's the only thing in between LSU and a national title berth.

2. Boston College and Matt Ryan both fall
The Eagles on the field, and Ryan on the Heisman ballots. His numbers were never that impressive as he's been interception prone, but he was a candidate because he found ways to win until he came up empty against Florida State. That last minute interception return for a touchdown was the nail in Ryan's Heisman coffin. Boston College has to re-align their focus, however, as the ACC title and a spot in a BCS bowl are still very possible and very prestigious outcomes for the 2007 season.

3. National Championship prediction
Boston College losing might even add to the controversy, adding another one loss team to the mix. I, like many people, believed BC would finish undefeated. So now I have to switch my prediction to a showdown between Oregon and LSU for the national championship, with Ohio State, Oklahoma, Kansas, Hawaii and Boston College all with legitimate gripes.

Heisman Race
1. Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon (2,623 total yards, 28 total TD's)
2. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (2,826 total yards, 35 total TD's)
3. Mike Hart, RB Michigan (1,118 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD's)

on the bubble: Darren McFadden, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel, Matt Ryan, Todd Reesing

Golden Top 25
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Oregon
4. Oklahoma
5. Kansas
6. Missouri
7. West Virginia
8. Boston College
9. Arizona State
10. Georgia
11. Michigan
12. Virginia Tech
13. Connecticut
14. Texas
15. Hawaii
16. USC
17. Auburn
18. Florida
19. Boise State
20. Clemson
21. Virginia
22. Alabama
23. Tennessee
24. California
25. Kentucky

Week 10 P

Georgia Tech over #11 Virginia Tech

#1 Ohio State over #21 Wisconsin

#3 LSU over #17 Alabama

#5 Oregon over #4 Arizona State

#18 South Florida over Cincinnati

#24 Wake Forest over #23 Virginia

#12 Michigan over Michigan State