Solving the Puzzle

I went 3-3 with my picks for Week 2.

This week was typical of being early on in a college football season. There were a few surprises, and a few banal outcomes, but since it's at the beginning of a season do we really know what is a surprise and what's expected? The top teams are obvious...USC and LSU...but after that, how much do we really know? Do we have a factual basis, from watching on-field play, for saying West Virginia is #3 and Penn State is #14? No. Not yet.

But weeks like Week 2 are the kind where we begin to find out how good (or bad) these 2007 squads actually are. A lot of people had been whispering that Virginia Tech was overrated, and without them getting clownstomped by LSU we wouldn't have known that. Florida's defense was questionable after losing 9 starters from last year's national championship team, and now that Troy put up 31 on them we can say definitively that the Gators' defense does have serious holes. In this vein, my analysis of NCAA Week 2 is entitled:

The Truth: Separating the Men from the Boys

1. Michigan.....This is not a good football team. I, like a lot of sports fans, really believed that they had just had an off day against a good football team in their loss to Appalachian State. Surely they would bounce back, play with a fire in their eyes and a chip on their shoulders, and demolish Pac-10 foe Oregon. That's why I said that the Wolverines would win big, and I couldn't have been more wrong. Michigan's defense is more porous than a cooking strainer, Henne should have gone pro, and Mike Hart is their lone bright spot. Hart has had a hell of a season already, and will continue to do so; it's a shame that a defense unable to stop a spread offense lost him the Heisman. From the way he has played on the field and remained calm, collected, and motivated off the field, Hart has surely won over the hearts of many NFL scouts. You had better bet the words "toughness," "character" and "leader" are written on all of his scout sheets. The Big Blue faithful are in for a woeful season--guaranteed losses against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. They'll be lucky to go to a bowl game.

2. And speaking of Ohio State...They haven't looked good, either. They were only up 3-2 on Akron at halftime and won by an unimpressive 20-3 score. The Big Ten was a powerhouse last year with the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Even though Penn State has joined the elite ranks, Ohio State and Michigan have fallen way off. That's the truth here: gone are the days, at least for 2007, of OSU and UM dominance of the Big Ten. Either Wisconsin, Penn State, or dark horse Purdue will win it this year.

3. SEC maybe not as powerful as some thought? From top to bottom, the SEC has traditionally been the strongest conference. I am not saying they have the best teams, I'm saying that they have the highest number of quality, competitive teams than any other conference. With the exception of Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, every SEC team has a chance to beat any given team in the nation on any given night. With Auburn and Georgia--two teams with national championship aspirations--losing this weekend the SEC was dealt a powerful blow. Even though Georgia lost to another SEC team, South Carolina, the Gamecocks aren't as good of a team in the long run and won't contend for a national title. So it was a loss for the SEC as a whole. The truth here is that the SEC isn't as strong as many people thought: even though LSU and Florida are some of the best teams in the country, it was believed that Tennessee and Georgia would be up there as well. Using simple math, one could say we found out that the SEC is about half as good as we thought it was.

4. Mid-majors struggle...Boise State lost and Hawaii had to use overtime to beat Louisiana Tech. With such teams putting up gaudy numbers and perfect records it might have been thought that they were as good as some of the elite teams. But would Oklahoma lose to Washington by two touchdowns, or would USC only beat Louisiana Tech by a point in overtime? The truth here is that although these mid-majors are good teams with the propensity to upset the big boys, they're right where they belong: ranked #20-#25 and no higher.

5. Oklahoma is for real...So they lost Adrian Peterson to the NFL draft and are starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback. Obviously 2007 would be a rebuilding year, right? Wrong. Sam Bradford continues to impress and Malcolm Kelly has just appeared as a blip on the national radar. Watch out for Oklahoma...after Week 2, they are the unquestionable #3 team in the country.

Heisman Race

1. Colt Brennan, QB Hawaii (964 yards passing, 11 total TD's)
2. Brian Brohm, QB Louisville (776 yards passing, 10 total TD's)
3. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (151 yards rushing, 2 total TD's)--inactive in week 2
4. Ray Rice, RB Rutgers (359 yards rushing, 5 TD's)
5. Tashard Choice, RB Georgia Tech (306 yards rushing, 4 TD's)

on the bubble: Tim Tebow, Steve Slaton, Patrick White

Golden Top 25

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. West Virginia
6. Wisconsin
7. Texas
8. California
9. Penn State
10. UCLA
11. Louisville
12. Rutgers
13. Tennessee
14. Nebraska
15. Arkansas
16. Ohio State
17. Clemson
18. Virginia Tech
19. Georgia Tech
20. South Carolina
21. Oregon
22.Georgia
23. Hawaii
24. Boston College
25. Texas A&M