Week 9 Thoughts

I went 3-2 with my picks for Week 9, bringing my overall year-to-date record to 19-8.

1. Ohio State impresses in defense of #1 ranking, but is still overrated
Penn State in the upset was a trendy pick this week, and I myself fell victim to underrating the Buckeyes. As I said earlier in the season, Penn State hasn't done much to impress me in recent history, especially in big games. In what's becoming a sad trend, PSU decided not to show up in a nationally televised primetime game. I didn't think Ohio State was that good of a team, and even after this weekend's drubbing of the Nittany Lions I still don't think the Buckeyes are a contender. They'll hold on to their #1 ranking until they lose to Michigan and will be bypassed by the likes of Oklahoma, Oregon and LSU when it comes to the BCS national title race.

2. Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawaii...all undefeated, but how good are they?
Boston College is very good. National title contender good (unless its raining). Kansas is stronger than most people are giving them credit for, even after a win over Texas A&M. Arizona State is proving why the Pac-10 might be catching up to the SEC in terms of the "toughest conference" crown. And Hawaii...well...they have Colt Brennan. I believe Boston College and Hawaii finish undefeated, with Kansas hanging around until a loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship. Arizona State will lose 2, both to USC and Oregon. Hawaii might sneak in as an at-large to a BCS bowl, but won't be considered above even a 2-loss team for the national championship game due to an embarrassingly weak schedule. To sum up in one sentence: Boston College and Kansas are ranked where they should be (#2 and #8, respectively) while ASU and Hawaii aren't as good as their positions indicate.

3. BCS National Championship game prediction
Boston College vs. LSU. Once again there will be controversy as the Big 12 (Oklahoma), SEC (LSU), Big Ten (Ohio State) and Pac-10 (Oregon) will have a one-loss delegate. Ohio State will suffer because of a weak schedule, but the other three teams all have an impressive resume. Boston College will win the ACC and finish undefeated, making them a lock to play in the game. But who do they face of the remaining three? The SEC is still the strongest conference in the country and the voters know that. The Pac-10 has closed the gap considerably this season, but would have to have another season or two like 2007 to really be able to compete with the SEC in the eyes of the media.

Heisman Watch
A little bit of a change this week. As the season has progressed, the majority of Heisman hopefuls have been weeded out and only a few still remain as possibly recipients. It's no longer just about numbers, but now team losses come in to play, automatically nullifying players like Tim Tebow, Andre Woodson, Ray Rice and Darren McFadden. To reflect this, instead of listing 5 possible winners I'm reducing my list to 3.

1. Matt Ryan, QB Boston College (2,433 passing yards, 19 passing TD's)
2. Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon (2,377 total yards, 24 total TD's)
3. Mike Hart, RB Michigan (1,078 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD's)

I consider Mike Hart a candidate despite two losses because he has single-handedly turned Michigan's season around. The Wolverines might be winless without Hart, who, to be terribly cliche, is the heart of that team.

Golden Top 25
1. Ohio State
2. Boston College
3. LSU
4. Oregon
5. Oklahoma
6. Arizona State
7. Kansas
8. West Virginia
9. Missouri
10. Georgia
11. Hawaii
12. Michigan
13. Virginia Tech
14. Texas
15. USC
16. Auburn
17. Florida
18. Alabama
19. Connecticut
20. Wisconsin
21. South Florida
22. Wake Forest
23. Tennessee
24. South Carolina
25. Boise State

Week 9 Picks

#2 Boston College over #8 Virginia Tech

#5 Oregon over #12 USC

#11 Florida over #18 Georgia

#25 Penn State over #1 Ohio State

#7 West Virginia over Rutgers

Week 8

I went 4-1 with my picks this week, bringing my overall total to 16-6 on the year.

Heisman Race
1. Ray Rice, RB Rutgers (999 rushing yards, 14 total TD's)
2. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (2,286 total yards, 27 total TD's)
3. Matt Ryan, QB Boston College (2,148 passing yards, 17 passing TD's)
4. Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky (2,201 passing yards, 26 passing TD's)
5. Dennis Dixon QB Oregon (2,144 passing yards, 23 total TD's)

ON THE BUBBLE: Mike Hart, Sam Bradford, Darren McFadden

Golden Top 25
1. Ohio State
2. Boston College
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Arizona State
6. Oregon
7. West Virginia
8. Virginia Tech
9. Florida
10. USC
11. Kansas
12. Missouri
13. Kentucky
14. South Florida
15. Hawaii
16. South Carolina
17. Texas
18. Georgia
19. Virginia
20. Michigan
21. California
22. Rutgers
23. Alabama
24. Penn State
25. Auburn

Week 8 Picks

1. Rutgers over #2 South Florida
This is the kind of game that has put Rutgers on the map over the past two seasons. Ray Rice will carry the game on his shoulders. It'll be close, but the Scarlet Knights put the Golden Bulls where they belong--ranked around #10-15 in the nation.

2. #4 LSU over #17 Auburn
This one's kind of a gimme pick, as LSU is still the favorite to win the national championship. Auburn is much improved since their disastrous beginning to the season, but they haven't improved enough to beat an LSU team that's got something to prove after a 3OT loss to Kentucky.

3. #15 Florida over #7 Kentucky
Two straight losses and then a Bye...the Gators are as ready and fired up for this game as a team can possibly be. Urban Meyer himself would suit up and play a headhunting Safety before he let his Gators lose this game. Andre Woodson should have a field day against a weak Florida secondary, however, so it should be close--and a good opportunity to pad his Heisman numbers.

4. #24 Texas Tech over #16 Missouri
Nobody's talking about Graham Harrell. They should be. Texas Tech has a good system for QB's...but Harrell is taking it to a whole other level. You heard it here first, he's more than a system QB. And he'll prove it on Saturday. This game should be a fun one to watch, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's over 1,000 yards of total offense.

5. #25 Michigan over Illinois
A year ago this would have been a gimme pick. But just last week Illinois was ranked and Big Blue was not, so this is more of an evenly matched game--on paper--than many would have predicted. Michigan has rebounded from their disastrous start, though, and will give Ohio State a run for its money. Illinois should prove little more than a minor bump...but the Illini are on the upswing with the Zooker at the helm, who just got a 3-year extension.

Week 7

Does Anyone Want It?

Almost every year in college football there's a clear cut "top team" and about 3-4 other serious contenders who vary from rank 2-10 throughout the season. I still think LSU is the top team in the country, but from there the field is about as flooded as UNCW during a thunderstorm.

1. Ohio State is now in the driver's seat
They started the year reeling from losing most of their key players from their 2006 squad, but this young team has gotten better each and every week. They still lack the star power (I invite you to try to name more than 3 players on their team unless you're a Buckeye fan) but they find themselves with the #1 ranking. They more fell into it than earned it...they haven't done anything special except not lose to inferior teams...but they're there nevertheless. I'd circle the Michigan game as a probably loss, but now that Mike Hart's future is uncertain Ohio State's road seems that much easier. If they go undefeated they'll be playing for the BCS title...but I think a one loss SEC or Pac-10 team, or an undefeated Big East (South Florida) or ACC (Boston College) team gets the nod over a one loss Ohio State.

2. Is the SEC West now in doubt?
No. Not really. But it's certainly a possibility for Auburn to knock off LSU next week and win out and take the crown. I think Les Miles will find and fix all of the holes that Kentucky exposed, making LSU that much of a stronger team next week. I don't think that this game will even be close; Les Miles' class and sportsmanship have always been a little suspect and he'll try to run up the score in a statement game in Death Valley.

3. Do South Florida or Boston College deserve a look at the #1 ranking?
They're not better than teams like LSU, Oklahoma, or Ohio State...but they're both undefeated and have several key victories. If USF beats Rutgers this Thursday night they'll greatly increase their chances of running the table and add another impressive win to their BCS resume. Ohio State would have to lose in order for this scenario to happen, but given the trend of this year's college football season that's more than likely. Seeing an 11-year-old, previously obscure program like USF ranked #1 will cause shockwaves through the NCAA...I don't know whether the cheer for or against it.

Heisman Watch
1. Graham Harrell, QB Texas Tech (3, 151 passing yards, 31 passing TD's)
2. Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky (1,786 passing yards, 24 total TD's)
3. Matt Ryan, QB Boston College (2,148 passing yards, 17 passing TD's)
4. Ray Rice, RB Rutgers (993 total yards, 14 total TD's)
5. Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon (1,849 total yards, 21 total TD's)

on the bubble: Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Mike Hart

Top 25
1. Ohio State

2. South Florida

3. Boston College

4. LSU

5. Oklahoma

6. Kentucky

7. Oregon

8. South Carolina

9. California

10. Arizona State

11. West Virginia

12. Virginia Tech

13. Florida

14. USC

15. Kansas

16. Missouri

17. Auburn

18. Hawaii

19. Tennessee

20. Texas Tech

21. Georgia

22. Texas

23. Cincinnati

24. Michigan

25. Virginia

Week 6

The Craziest Year Ever?

Last week, five of the Top 10 teams lost. This week, four more fell as well (though one team, Florida, was one of those teams both weeks). USC lost to Stanford. Among the Top 5 now are California, Boston College, and South Florida. I didn't make any picks this week because in the midst of 3 tests and a paper I'll be honest--I forgot to before Thursday night. And thank God I didn't, I don't think anyone could have predicted this week in college football.

1. Stanford over USC...the biggest upset in college football history?
Well, except for Michigan's little hiccup against Appalachian State. The Vegas line on this game was USC -40.5. The same oddsmakers didn't even make a line for the App. State-Michigan game, so that upset still reigns supreme. But this does not at all lessen the magnitude of what the Fighting Jim Harbaughs accomplished last night. It doesn't get any more exciting than a completed 4th and 20, and then a touchdown on 4th and Goal, resulting in an underdog win. The two coaches, Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll, have had a year-long verbal battle that apparently is not over--Carroll refused to shake his opponent's hand after the game. As a huge fan of sportsmanship, I could write for hours about how classless of a move this is, but all I'll say is that Carroll deserved this loss and deserves every loss that's coming his way for the rest of the season...and there will be at least one more. What a chump. GO TREE.

2. LSU the clear number 1...and only sure thing.
No championship team gets through the season without a gutcheck. The Tigers got their first last night, and they responded accordingly. The Gators gave them every ounce that they could handle, but the Tigers played a tenacious fourth quarter--marked by five absolutely ice-blooded calls by coach Les Miles--and came away with an earned victory. For all the arguments that could be made about who is ranked number 2 and beyond, there is no argument over who is the top team in the land and the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship. That being said...LSU will lose a game. I don't believe any team can survive a modern day SEC schedule without a defeat. Even if LSU escapes Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas, they'll face the Gators (who will win the rest of their games) again in the SEC Championship. On a neutral field. Against an extremely revenge-oriented Florida team. If LSU can win out, they deserve to be called one of the best teams in modern history.

3. Ohio State back among the elite.
And deservedly so. The Buckeyes had a shakey start but have really gelled and are coming on strong. They handedly beat a #23 ranked Purdue to remain undefeated, and are now the favorites to win the Big Ten and perhaps even to face LSU in the national title game. Let's face it, California is a Pac-10 team...they'll lose a game (my guess is against Arizona State). The Buckeyes on the other hand benefit greatly from Michigan's struggles and Wisconsin's loss. Other than LSU, I think Ohio State is one of the few other teams capable of going undefeated. I'm not saying they will--I think they'll lose one--but they have a decent chance to do so. But don't get too excited, Buckeye fans...you might not want to be in too big of a hurry to get burned by SEC speed on a national stage again.

4. Boston College and South Florida...really two of the best five teams?
They both have great, playmaking quarterbacks and have beaten everyone that has been placed in their way. I still have trouble thinking of them as being better teams than the likes of Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida, USC, etc...but for now, the absolutely deserve to be ranked where they are. USF is just such a great story, how can you not cheer for them? They've only had a football team for 11 years! COUGHHINT UNCW HINTHINTCOUGH. And Boston College...Matt Ryan is Mr. Consistency. With him taking the snaps, you can never count BC out of a ballgame. In a cupcake ACC conference, the Golden Eagles also have a chance to go undefeated...but will the voters take this as enough to put them in the BCS National Championship over a one-loss Pac-10, SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten team?

5. National championship picture is about as clear as a Picasso painting.
The way this year is going, at the end we'll have a one-loss team (LSU) and an absolute slew of two loss teams from the major conferences. Then we'll have a few one loss teams, and even maybe an undefeated team, from the "lesser"...here's looking at you, ACC and Big East...divisions. Florida's hopes are dashed, since even a victory over LSU in the SEC Championship wouldn't be enough to put them over the Tigers unless LSU lost a game before that, too. Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, California, Oregon, South Florida, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arizona State, Wisconsin, and a slew of other teams are all still right there in it. Of all those teams I think the teams with a realistic chance are USC, Cal, Oklahoma, USF, and Ohio State. We won't know down to the very wire, though, and I'm looking very much forward to the second half of the season.

Golden Top 25
1. LSU
2. California
3. Ohio State
4. South Florida
5. Boston College
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. West Virginia
9. South Carolina
10. Missouri
11. Oregon
12. Virginia Tech
13. Arizona State
14. Florida
15. Wisconsin
16. Cincinnati
17. Hawaii
18. Kentucky
19. Illinois
20. Kansas
21. Florida State
22. Auburn
23. Georgia
24. Texas
25. Texas Tech

Heisman Race
1. Mike Hart, RB Michigan (976 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's)
2. Graham Harrell, QB Texas Tech (2,726 passing yards, 30 total TD's)
3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois (945 total yards, 12 total YD's)
4. Matt Ryan, QB Boston College (1,857 passing yards, 16 total TD's)
5. Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky (1,536 passing yards, 20 total TD's)

on the bubble: Darren McFadden, Tim Tebow, DeSean Jackson

Week 5

The Art of Laying an Egg

Just got back from the Panthers game...which was about as awful as Week 5 of college football. Five of the top 10 teams lost, all in upsets. This has paved the way for such perennial powerhouses as South Florida and Kentucky to be ranked WAY too high, the reason I hate the polls. Does anyone out there really think Kentucky is better than Oklahoma, or South Florida better than the Gators? Talent aside, these underdog teams are undefeated and have quality wins, something that quite a few major programs--who would probably win 7 out of 10 games against these higher ranked teams--can't say. They deserve, for now, to be ranked higher...but they are not the better teams.

I went 2-2 with my picks for the week since up-and-down Cal decided to have an up week and Clemson failed to beat a Georgia Tech team that they routed last year and has only gotten worse since then. My overall record stands at 12-5.

1. Oklahoma
Sam Bradford proved why its nearly impossible for most freshmen and sophomores to win the Heisman: inexperience. He threw two costly interceptions that cost his team the game. As with all young quarterbacks, Bradford needed this type of game so that he can learn from it and grow. Bradford will be a force in the NCAA for the next two or three years and will have the Sooners competing for a national championship each year he's there. This isn't to count the Sooners out this season yet, its looking more and more like the national championship will be a battle of one loss teams. USC will lose a game in the Pac 10, and LSU has a rigorous SEC schedule beginning with back-to-back weeks against Florida and Kentucky.

2. Florida
The good news for the Gators is an upset over #1 LSU in Week 6 would catapult them right back into the top 5. The bad news is they'd have to do it against a superior team, in Death Valley, after losing to a team that shouldn't have even posed a threat. Anyone who knows me knows that I'm a huge Gators fan (born and raised in Ft. Myers), but this isn't their year. Tim Tebow is a young quarterback--though he has more experience than most of his peers--and doesn't quite have the poise to lead a team to a national championship like Chris Leak had. Like Sam Bradford, Tebow will have this Gators team competing for a national title each year...but asking him to go into Death Valley against the #1 defense and #1 team in the country as a sophomore...well, it's just not likely. Hopefully he'll prove me wrong, but if I had to guess I'd say Florida is a two-loss team this season. Their young; watch out in 2008 once Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, and the entire defense have another year under their belts.

3. Texas
This is not a good football team. Colt McCoy is getting worse every week and the defense has more holes than a minefield. They'll lose another game at least, if not two or even three. Of course they'll go to a bowl, but not one as prestigious as the Longhorns are used to.

4. Rutgers
The Big East seems destined to keep on shooting itself in the foot. Louisville is fighting to even get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, West Virginia and Rutgers go down in the same week, and suddenly South Florida is the team to beat. The Big East was supposed to have 3 national title contenders, and now it has 0. USF is a good team with momentum, but they'll lose steam eventually; they're just not talented enough to hang with the BCS powerhouses. Rutgers is still my favorite to win the conference, returning an experienced and very determined football team. Maryland is a good football squad back on the rise after a few down years, so this loss wasn't too horrible of an upset for the Scarlet Knights. I think Rutgers completes the Paper-Rock-Scissors game the Big East is playing and beats USF on October 18, possibly finishing 11-1. A one loss team from the Big East won't beat out a one loss team from the Pac-10 or SEC, though, and Rutgers' national championship aspirations have officially been snuffed out.

Heisman Race

1. Andre Woodson, QB Kentucky (1309 passing yards, 18 total TD's)
2. Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas (656 rushing yards, 7 total TD's)
3. Graham Harrell, QB Texas Tech (2,301 passing yards, 25 total TD's)
4. Steve Slaton, RB West Virginia (684 total yards, 10 total TD's)
5. Tim Tebow, QB Florida (1,730 total yards, 19 total TD's)

On the Bubble: Ray Rice, Curtis Painter

Golden Top 25

1. LSU
2. USC
3. Ohio State
4. California
5. Wisconsin
6. Boston College
7. South Florida
8. Florida
9. Oklahoma
10. Kentucky
11. Oregon
12. Georgia
13. Virginia Tech
14. Missouri
15. Rutgers
16. Purdue
17. Texas
18. South Carolina
19. Cincinnati
20. Arizona State
21. Hawaii
22. Clemson
23. Kansas State
24. Nebraska
25. UCLA